India could see a spike in religious violence in
the run up to the general elections, a top US intelligence official has
warned. He has also strongly criticised prime minister Narendra Modi’s
term for degrading the country’s religious harmony.
“Parliamentary
elections in India increase the possibility of communal violence if
Indian prime minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
stresses Hindu nationalist themes,” said the report,
presented to the US senate select committee by Dan Coats, director of
national intelligence. “Hindu nationalist state leaders might view a
Hindu-nationalist campaign as a signal to incite low-level violence to
animate their supporters. Increasing communal clashes could alienate
Indian Muslims and allow Islamist terrorist groups in India to expand
their influence.”
The years since Modi took power have seen Hindu majoritarian violence in various forms, including mob lynchings that are often fuelled by social media rumours.
And the BJP is often shown to benefit from such violence. A 2014 study
by Yale political scientists showed that the party “saw a 0.8
percentage point increase in their vote share following a riot in the
year prior to an election.”
The Coats report
also predicts that relations between India and Pakistan will be strained
through this May, when the election is expected to be held, “and
probably beyond” that as well. It cites how terrorist attacks and
cross-border firing have continued to occur in Kashmir, reducing the
likelihood of rapprochement between the two south Asian rivals.
Besides
the Indian elections, the report claimed, the challenges facing south
Asia are likely to grow in 2019 because of various factors, including
Afghanistan’s presidential election, expected in July, and Pakistan’s
reluctance to be firm with militants.
